In July 2016 I wrote an article that I shared with a few friends about the Republican nominee for the November 2016 election – Donald Trump. I have copied the article below for interest and reference.
As it turned out America did elect Trump in 2016 and he did exercise the coveted prize of appointing three US Supreme Court Justices. The religious right did turn out to support Trump; however, it would be naive to assume it was only the religious right and a loyal red-neck following that brought Trump to power over Hilary Clinton. In fact, 53% of white women supported Trump even in the face of all the slights he made about women.
In the last 8 years, we saw Trump win in 2016 and then lose the 2020 election to Joe Biden and he never accepted the outcome. Trump fueled a riot on the Capitol on January 6, 2021 from far right extremists. It appeared their goal was to get to Vice President Mike Pence given he would not overturn the results of the 2020 election. A very scary situation for America as their democracy was threatened. Hard to believe that America and the Republicans did not learn more from this insurrection as they have nominated Trump as their candidate for 2024. The litany of name calling, belittling people who do not agree with him and spreading fear to the nation continues unabated. Some Republicans have reacted; however, the majority sits silent and caters to a person who lacks substance and integrity.
The stage is now set for the 2024 election. Trump and J.D. Vance versus Kamala Harris and Tim Walz. To get here I believe both parties made terrible mistakes coming out of the primaries.
It is hard to believe the Republicans surrendered to the Trump train again and are carrying on with such a divisive, shallow and old candidate. His hold on the Republican Party and certain elected Republican politicians is difficult to comprehend.
The Democrats coronated Joe Biden even though his age and declining health became obvious weaknesses. It was not until the Presidential debate in June that it became clear that Biden was not capable of continuing. Pressures came to bare from a broad number of Democrats and their donors and Biden stepped aside in July.
Here is where the 2024 election became interesting because Biden had no hope of beating Trump and he almost lost the election before it happened.
The tables have now turned. It is Trump who is looking old as the Democrats quickly coalesced around Harris. She raised over $200 million as the Democrats donors came on board after Biden stepped aside.
It appears Trump does not know how to deal with Harris as she brings an exuberance and uplifting style that is contrary to his own. He is trying to stay on message about the economy and immigration – his strengths according to the polls – but he still lapses into personal attacks and name calling.
So the question remains – does Harris have the momentum to win the election?
The polls indicate that the race will be close. The national polls do not mean much because the majority of states are clear wins for either the Republications or the Democrats. The 7 battleground states that will decide the election are Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada. This is where the money will be spent and the candidates will be dropping into every major battleground city.
So what will it take to win the battleground states?
I see Trump winning if his message on the economy and immigration resinates. In addition, if the electorate thinks Harris and the Democrats are too far to the left, they will opt for Trump again.
For Harris to win, she must convince America to vote for a woman of colour. This is not a stretch given that Hilary Clinton and Barack Obama have opened the door for her in previous elections. I believe Harris must continue the wave of momentum that includes women, young people and minorities. If the protection of women’s rights has any meaning, then many of the women who voted for Trump in 2016 should gravitate to Harris in 2024.
There is one significant concern that hangs over the 2024 election. If Trump loses by any amount, will he accept the results or will he empower his base to violence? It’s hard to believe that America, a country that says it values democracy and the rule of law, can have this ominous threat leading up to an election of any kind. Time will tell.
My second cup is now empty…………………..
TRUMP ARTICLE – JULY 2016
Donald Trump is not a true American Conservative. I believe my first noticeable encounter with a true American Conservative occurred in Las Vegas about 12 years ago. Kathy and I were in our favourite comedy club having a drink before the show started. They was a well dressed couple, about 60 years old (not old by today’s standards) from Texas were sitting across from us. After dealing briefly with the usual cross border health care debate issues, the gentleman asked what Canadians thought of the American involvement Iraq. Speaking confidently for all Canadians, I suggested that we were concerned about the military involvement and did not necessarily see the connection between the September 11 terrorist attacks and the invasion. This gentleman emphatically stated that “he believed, as did his wife, that the United States was at war with terrorists”. He seemed comfortable speaking on behalf of his wife and she seemed equally comfortable for him to do so. A true American Conservative. The image of Mike Pence now comes to mind.
When Donald announced his run last summer for the Republican nomination there were skeptics. His position on building a wall with Mexico, his comments about women, his mocking of a disabled reporter, his views on illegal immigrant sponsored violence and his overall tone seemed to be in conflict with what I thought people believed.
I said there is no way in hell that Republicans would be that stupid to nominate Donald Trump. I was wrong. I was not alone.
I made a couple of bad assumptions. You know what happens when you assume. It makes an ass out of you and me (ass-u-me). First off, I discounted that Donald would only appeal to rednecks. Secondly, I assumed that Jeb Bush would carry the nomination because he had appeal in Florida, his wife is of American Spanish heritage and a Clinton – Bush election would be fun to watch.
I got an indication that I was wrong about Donald’s ability to carry the nomination this winter while in Las Vegas. I talked to another Texan and asked why Republicans were not warming to Jeb Bush yet he was the Republican candidate who was raising the most money to fund the campaign? He was very clear. Jeb is not like his brother or father. He is NOT conservative enough. The lights started to come on for me.
It became clear that the mainstream Republican Party is out of touch with the American people who hold conservative beliefs. These people may include rednecks; however, the support is much broader then that. It includes the far right conservative (think religious right) but also includes the lower, middle class group who actually look down on the folks below their position in life (think white male of any religious affiliation) This Class distinction view is the last hold over of the Class system brought to us by our British friends as they spread love and joy around their Empire. Bottom line is that Donald has a broader base of support then was anticipated.
The mainstream Republican Party had no idea how to deal with Donald as he bullied and insulted his way past them to earn the nomination. When it came to the convention coronation, the pillars of the Republican Party acted quite differently. The Bush family, John McCain, John Kasich and other prominent Republicans stayed home because they could not compromise their principles and support Donald. Ted Cruz, protector of the Tea Party and card carrying religious right member, spoke at the convention, at Donald’s request, and had the back bone not to endorse Donald even though he was in the lion’s den. Others like Chris Christie and Paul Ryan put aside Donald’s personal insults and compromised themselves to try and get closer to the trough. Very sad.
Donald made a wonderful political choice for a running mate with Mike Pence. Mike will solidify the religious right and calmly promote his position. You see, he is a true American Conservative. He will also stand by and watch Donald promote fear and doom for America while declaring that he alone can save America!
The Republican Party dearly wants to win in November, not only to have the Presidency and satisfy their hate for Hilary, but to control the nomination for the vacant Supreme Court position. This prize has the ability to shape a divided Supreme Court and influence the direction of American law for many years to come.
I think Hilary also made a good running made choice in Tim Kaine. He should appeal to the ever popular white male vote and the Democrats need to win Virginia. The fact that he is not liberal enough for the Bernie Sanders supporters will mean nothing in November. The Sanders people cannot vote for Donald and they cannot stay home (as some Republicans will do) because they have to stop Donald. They will get on their bicycles (probably made in China) and ride to the polls to vote for Hilary and Bill Clinton in November.
I expect there is no way in hell the American people are stupid enough to……………..
God Bless America!
My second cup is now empty………
